全恺, 梁伟, 张来斌, 俞徐超, 李元. 基于故障树与贝叶斯网络的川气东送管道风险分析[J]. 油气储运, 2017, 36(9): 1001-1006. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2017.09.003
引用本文: 全恺, 梁伟, 张来斌, 俞徐超, 李元. 基于故障树与贝叶斯网络的川气东送管道风险分析[J]. 油气储运, 2017, 36(9): 1001-1006. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2017.09.003
QUAN Kai, LIANG Wei, ZHANG Laibin, YU Xuchao, LI Yuan. Risk analysis of Sichuan-to-East Gas Pipeline based on Fault Tree and Bayesian Network[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation, 2017, 36(9): 1001-1006. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2017.09.003
Citation: QUAN Kai, LIANG Wei, ZHANG Laibin, YU Xuchao, LI Yuan. Risk analysis of Sichuan-to-East Gas Pipeline based on Fault Tree and Bayesian Network[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation, 2017, 36(9): 1001-1006. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2017.09.003

基于故障树与贝叶斯网络的川气东送管道风险分析

Risk analysis of Sichuan-to-East Gas Pipeline based on Fault Tree and Bayesian Network

  • 摘要: 为了视情排查川气东送管道关键危险源,保障天然气安全平稳输送,对川气东送管道的事故风险开展评估。提出了一种基于故障树与贝叶斯网络相结合的管道事故风险分析方法:将故障树分析清晰的因果建模能力和贝叶斯网络强大的动态更新能力相结合,根据川气东送管道的设计、运行及维护实际情况,建立了川气东送管道事故致因模型;将模型映射至贝叶斯网络,分析得出川气东送管道事故风险为1×10-3等级,其中腐蚀是川气东送管道事故的第一风险因素;通过概率更新分析,得出了5条关键失效致因链。关键风险因素和失效致因链的得出对管道运行现场的危险源排查和风险预防具有指导意义,但仍不够精确,需进一步统计分析基本失效事件的概率数据,以得出更加准确的风险评估结果。

     

    Abstract: In order to identify the critical hazard sources based on condition and ensure the safe and smooth transportation of natural gas along the Sichuan-to-East Gas Pipeline, its accident risks shall be evaluated. In this paper, a Falut Tree and Bayesian Network based risk analysis method for pipeline accident was developed. In this method, the clear causal modeling ability of Fault Tree and the strong dynamic updating ability of Bayesian Network are combined together. According to the design, operation and maintenance data of the Sichuan-to-East Gas Pipeline, the causal model for its accident was established. Then it was mapped into the Bayesian Network for analysis. It is shown that the accident risk level of the Sichuan-to-East Gas Pipeline is 1×10-3 and the corrosion is the top one risk factor leading to the accident of Sichuan-to-East Gas Pipeline. And finally, 5 critical failure causation chains were figured out based on probability updating analysis. The obtainment of key risk factors and failure causation chains is instructive for the hazard source identification and the risk prevention in the pipeline operation site, but it is still not accurate enough. Therefore, it is necessary to carry out further statistical analysis on the probability data of basic failure events to achieve a more accurate risk analysis result.

     

/

返回文章
返回