石油化工生产区域多米诺效应定量风险分析
Quantitative risk analysis on domino effect in petrochemical production areas
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摘要: 为了更好地实现石油化工生产区域的定量风险分析, 介绍了多米诺效应的定义和评价流程, 总结了国内外相关研究成果, 分析了风险评价中使用到的热辐射、超压、碎片对设备损坏概率的计算模型, 认为模型对影响因素的考虑不够全面, 影响了评价结果的准确性, 提出了未来应该关注的研究方向。通过多米诺场景概率计算出人员伤亡概率, 为事故的救援工作提供了支持。为了完善国内的风险评价内容, 应该逐步在制定规范时对多米诺效应的评价提出要求, 根据评价结果采取相应措施, 中断初始事故的扩展蔓延, 防止事故多米诺效应的发生。Abstract: For purpose of better quantitative risk analysis on petrochemical production areas, the definition of domino effect and the evaluation process were introduced. Then, based on the researches on domino effect in China and abroad, analysis was made on the model which was applied in risk assessment to calculate the probability of device damage caused by heat radiation, overpressure and fragment. It is indicated that the model doesn't include all influential factors completely, debasing the accuracy of assessment. Accordingly, the subjects to be concerned in the future work were proposed. Casualty probability is calculated with the frequency of domino scenarios, which can provide the support for accidental rescue. As a supplement to risk assessment in China, analysis on domino effect should be considered and included in the specifications gradually. According to the evaluation results, proper measures will be taken, so as to avoid domino effect by interrupting the propagation of initial accidents.