考虑运输风险的成品油运输方式选择模型
Transportation mode selection model of refined oil products with consideration of transportation risks
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摘要: 基于成品油长距离运输方式的分析, 考虑成品油易燃易爆的特性, 以运输成本和运输风险为目标函数, 建立成品油运输方式选择的多目标规划模型, 使用粒子群智能优化算法对模型进行求解, 并以北京某公司成品油运输为例, 应用该模型与算法进行分析计算, 结果表明: 当运输成本与安全的权重相差较小时, 铁路比公路环节耗时长, 在里程较短时考虑到时间价值会优先选择公路运输方式; 但当里程较长时, 由于铁路运输比公路运输风险小, 运输方式的选择便会倾向于铁路运输; 算例计算结果表明当运营里程在500 km左右时, 适合选取铁路运输方式。Abstract: Through analyzing the long-distance transportation modes of refined oil products, and considering the combustibility of refined oil products, a multi-objective programming model is established for selecting a proper transportation mode with low cost and risks. The model is solved by particle swarm optimization. When the model is applied to a refined oil products transportation company in Beijing, it is found that railway transportation spends longer time than road transportation when there is a small gap between weights of transportation cost and safety. Road transportation is preferred when the distance is short in view of time value, while less-risky railway transportation is recommended when the distance is long. The calculation results for this example show that railway transportation is better when the distance is beyond 500 km.