长输天然气管道坡面水毁风险敏感因素辨识
Identification of sensitivity factors for flood-damage risks on trench slopes of long-distance natural gas pipelines
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摘要: 为了科学、准确地辨识长输天然气管道坡面水毁风险敏感性因素, 为管道水毁灾害的防治提供决策依据, 根据长距离输气管道坡面水毁的特点, 提出了管道坡面水毁风险敏感因素的辨识方法。通过对坡面水毁灾害特征的分析, 将辨识过程分为基础分析、初步分析、详细分析3个阶段。在基础分析阶段, 给出了确定待辨识区域的识别准则; 在初步分析阶段, 给出了资料收集和现场调查的关键内容; 在详细分析阶段, 建立了管道坡面水毁失效故障树, 从而辨识出管道坡面水毁风险敏感因素。研究表明, 利用分阶段的辨识方法对长输天然气管道坡面水毁进行风险分析, 能够全面、系统地识别显存的和潜在的坡面水毁风险敏感因素。Abstract: To identify sensitivity factors for flood-damage risks on trench slopes of long-distance natural gas pipelines scientifically and accurately and to establish solid foundations for policy-making with regard to prevention and controlling of flood damages of pipelines, techniques for identification of sensitivity factors for flood-damage risks on trench slopes of gas-transmission pipelines have been proposed. With consideration to specific features of flood damages of slopes, the identification process can be divided into three basic steps: background analysis, preliminary analysis and detailed analysis. During background analysis, principles for clarification of area to be identified shall be given; the preliminary analysis shall be dominated by key sectors involving data acquisition and site surveys; during the detailed analysis stage, fault tree for failure of slopes shall be established to identify sensitivity factors for flood-damage risks of slopes. Research results show that a staged identification method can be used to identify sensitivity factors for existing and potential risks related to flood damages of slopes for long-distance natural gas pipelines comprehensively and systematically.