马纪伟, 王芝银. 基于熵理论的盐岩蠕变参数概率分布[J]. 油气储运, 2014, 33(12): 1320-1325. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2014.12.013
引用本文: 马纪伟, 王芝银. 基于熵理论的盐岩蠕变参数概率分布[J]. 油气储运, 2014, 33(12): 1320-1325. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2014.12.013
MA Jiwei, WANG Zhiyin. Probability distribution of creep parameters of salt rock based on entropy theory[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation, 2014, 33(12): 1320-1325. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2014.12.013
Citation: MA Jiwei, WANG Zhiyin. Probability distribution of creep parameters of salt rock based on entropy theory[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation, 2014, 33(12): 1320-1325. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2014.12.013

基于熵理论的盐岩蠕变参数概率分布

Probability distribution of creep parameters of salt rock based on entropy theory

  • 摘要: 根据某拟建储气库库址盐岩的蠕变试验数据和蠕变变化规律,基于伯格斯蠕变模型拟合得到了其蠕变参数。采用最大熵原理研究蠕变参数的概率分布,分别利用各蠕变参数试验数据的各阶中心矩及数据取对数后的各阶中心矩信息作为约束条件,建立蠕变参数概率分布的最大熵模型,并求解得到各蠕变参数密度分布函数。针对不同约束条件建模求解得到不同的熵密度函数形式,构建熵概率分布函数与经验分布函数的相对熵计算公式,通过相对熵值的比较分析选择更符合实际的密度函数。结果表明:基于熵理论推导建立的盐岩蠕变参数的概率分布模型,既可充分利用试验数据提供的信息,又能避免主观辩识或假设对参数概型结果产生的不利影响。

     

    Abstract: On the basis of creep test data and creep variation trend of salt rock at the location of a proposed gas storage, the creep parameters of such rock salt are obtained by Burgers creep model fitting. The maximum entropy principle is applied to analyze the probability distribution of the creep parameters. Using each central moment of the test data of the creep parameters and the central moment information after the data taking logarithm as constraints, the maximum entropy model for the probability distribution of the creep parameters is established and the density distribution function of the creep parameters is worked out. Different entropy density functions are got by modeling under different constraints, to build relative entropy formula for entropy probability function and the empirical distribution function, and then to select which is more accord with the actual density function by comparative analysis of the relative entropy values. The results show that the probability distribution model of salt rock creep parameters established on the basis of entropy theory can make full use of the information provided by the test data, and effectively avoid the adverse impact on the results of the probability distribution of the parameters due to subjective identification or assumption.

     

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