张振永, 张文伟, 张金源, 刘玉卿. 基于可靠性设计方法的长输管道选材方案[J]. 油气储运, 2014, 33(11): 1202-1207. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2014.11.011
引用本文: 张振永, 张文伟, 张金源, 刘玉卿. 基于可靠性设计方法的长输管道选材方案[J]. 油气储运, 2014, 33(11): 1202-1207. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2014.11.011
ZHANG Zhenyong, ZHANG Wenwei, ZHANG Jinyuan, LIU Yuqing. Material scheme of long-distance pipeline based on the reliability design method[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation, 2014, 33(11): 1202-1207. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2014.11.011
Citation: ZHANG Zhenyong, ZHANG Wenwei, ZHANG Jinyuan, LIU Yuqing. Material scheme of long-distance pipeline based on the reliability design method[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation, 2014, 33(11): 1202-1207. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2014.11.011

基于可靠性设计方法的长输管道选材方案

Material scheme of long-distance pipeline based on the reliability design method

  • 摘要: 针对国内某长距离通过多年冻土地区管道的选材问题,在经济、技术方案比选的基础上,基于管道的可靠性设计,结合管道的失效原因、失效类型和极限状态分析,对X52、X60钢级的管道抗力进行分析,认为X52钢级、9.5 mm壁厚管道的抗力水平整体明显高于X60钢级、8.7 mm壁厚管道,除抵抗第三方机械挖掘破坏刺穿能力相当外,其他方面的性能优势明显,尤其是极限拉伸应变和压缩应变,分别提高了17%和31%。利用材料、施工和运行维护不确定性参数,采用蒙特卡洛方法,定量计算X52、X60管道在腐蚀和第三方机械挖掘破坏情况下的失效概率水平,结果显示采用X52钢级方案管道失效概率远小于采用X60钢级方案。在费用增加约3.5%的情况下,基于管道的安全可靠性考虑,设计推荐采用X52钢级、壁厚9.5 mm方案。

     

    Abstract: To define the materials of a long-distance pipeline in China that is located in long spans permafrost area, X52 and X60 pipelines are analyzed for their resistances, combining pipeline failure causes and failure types and limit state, and by adopting the concept of pipeline reliability design, on the basis of the comparisons of conventional economic and technical schemes. It is considered that the whole resistance level of X52 pipe with 9.5 mm wall thickness is significantly higher than that of X60 pipe with 8.7 mm wall thickness; with the exception that these two grades share the same ability to against the third-party excavation damage and piercing, X52 steel pipe has obvious advantages in other aspects of performances, especially the ultimate tensile strain and compressive strain which increase by 17% and 31% respectively. Using uncertain parameters of materials, construction and operation maintenance, the failure probability levels under conditions of the third-party mechanical excavation damage and corrosion of X52 and X60 pipelines are quantitative calculated by Monte Carlo method. Results show that the failure probability of X52 pipe is far less than that of X60 pipe. Taking the pipeline safety reliability into consideration in the case of cost increases about 3.5%, X52 pipe with 9.5 mm wall thickness is recommended.

     

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