尤秋菊, 朱伟, 白永强, 赵堃. 城市天然气管网系统外部威胁脆弱性分析[J]. 油气储运, 2014, 33(9): 950-955. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2014.09.007
引用本文: 尤秋菊, 朱伟, 白永强, 赵堃. 城市天然气管网系统外部威胁脆弱性分析[J]. 油气储运, 2014, 33(9): 950-955. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2014.09.007
YOU Qiuju, ZHU Wei, BAI Yongqiang, ZHAO Kun. Vulnerability analysis of external threats for urban gas pipeline network system[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation, 2014, 33(9): 950-955. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2014.09.007
Citation: YOU Qiuju, ZHU Wei, BAI Yongqiang, ZHAO Kun. Vulnerability analysis of external threats for urban gas pipeline network system[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation, 2014, 33(9): 950-955. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2014.09.007

城市天然气管网系统外部威胁脆弱性分析

Vulnerability analysis of external threats for urban gas pipeline network system

  • 摘要: 为了比较准确地确定天然气管网系统的薄弱环节,从脆弱性的概念出发,结合天然气管网系统的特点,建立了天然气管网系统脆弱性分析理论。基于灾害链理论,深入分析了天然气管网系统脆弱性要素,得出了导致管网系统脆弱性的外部破坏性威胁因素,确定了天然气管网系统的易受害部位。建立了管网系统外部威胁的脆弱性计算模型,采用历史资料与专家咨询的方法,定性分析了外部自然威胁的威胁水平与功能缺失程度;利用马尔可夫潜在影响模型,定量计算了人为破坏管网系统的威胁水平;利用燃气管网水力计算软件,确定了管网系统人为威胁的功能缺失程度。以北京某区域高压天然气管网系统为例,进行了脆弱性分析,确定了脆弱性较强的关键部位。

     

    Abstract: In order to accurately definite identify the weakness of gas pipeline network system accurately, the vulnerability analysis theory thereof is established with starting from the concept of vulnerability, vulnerability analysis theory of gas pipeline system is established and combining with the characteristics of the pipeline system. Based on disaster chain theory, vulnerability factors elements of the system is analyzed deeply, and external destructive threats inducing the vulnerability and the vulnerable parts of the system are identified. Vulnerability calculating model of external threats is established. Using the historical data, together with expert consultation, severity and functional unavailability of external natural threats are analyzed qualitatively. With the Markov potential impact model, severity of human threats is quantified. Moreover, the hydraulic calculation software of gas pipeline network is used to define the functional unavailability of human threats. Taking the regional high pressure gas pipeline network in Beijing as an example, vulnerability analysis is conducted, and its key parts with high vulnerability are determined.

     

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