冯庆善. "树生"事故致因理论模型[J]. 油气储运, 2014, 33(2): 115-120, 128. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2014.02.001
引用本文: 冯庆善. "树生"事故致因理论模型[J]. 油气储运, 2014, 33(2): 115-120, 128. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2014.02.001
FENG Qingshan. "Tree type" model of accident cause theory[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation, 2014, 33(2): 115-120, 128. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2014.02.001
Citation: FENG Qingshan. "Tree type" model of accident cause theory[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation, 2014, 33(2): 115-120, 128. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2014.02.001

"树生"事故致因理论模型

"Tree type" model of accident cause theory

  • 摘要: 事故致因理论是认知事故、预防再次发生类似事故的理论基础,当前国际上存在事故因果连锁理论等多种事故致因理论,但在分析事故致因方面都存在一定的局限性,无法从本质上发现问题和实现针对性预防。为此,根据对油气管道及建筑结构等事故的研究分析,提出了一系列新的致因分析基础准则、分析流程和树生”模拟逻辑模型,认为可以按照树的枯死或干枝折断等模拟逻辑关系分析事故致因。该理论准则与传统准则在事故根本原因、直接原因、间接原因的定义以及识别内容等方面存在差别,更有系统性,避免了致因的遗漏或偏离,更利于分析事故深层次的原因,找出控制事故的关键。依据该理论,对某油气管道开裂、三丰大楼倒塌等事故进行分析,证了其适用性,显示了其在分析事故中的优势。该理论的提出为今后分析工业结构失效事故提供了一套新的理论方法。

     

    Abstract: Accident cause theory is the theoretical basis for recognizing the accidents and preventing recurrence of similar ones. Currently, there are a number of accident cause theories, including the accident causation sequence theory, but they all have some limitations in analyzing accident causes and cannot find problems in essence and achieve targeted prevention. So, based on analysis of accidents such as oil and gas pipelines and building structures, this paper puts forward a series of new basic principle of cause analysis, analysis process, and "tree type" simulation logic model, which can analyze the causes of accident according to the logic relationships of tree withering or dry stick breaking. This theory differs from the traditional one in the definition of the root causes, direct causes, and indirect causes of the accident as well as identification of content. This one is more systematic, avoiding the omission or deviation of accident cause, more favorable for the discovery of deeper causes of the accident and finding out the key to accident control. According to this theory, accidents such as some pipeline crack and the Sanfeng Building Collapse are analyzed to verify the applicability of this theory, which shows it has a leading edge in the analysis of accidents. This theory can provide a new set of theory and methods to the analysis of industrial structure failure accidents in the future.

     

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