张平, 李可夫, 邵勇, 吴文, 李静婷. 油气管道并行敷设风险分析[J]. 油气储运, 2013, 39(9): 1027-1028, 1033. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2013.09.023
引用本文: 张平, 李可夫, 邵勇, 吴文, 李静婷. 油气管道并行敷设风险分析[J]. 油气储运, 2013, 39(9): 1027-1028, 1033. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2013.09.023
Zhang Ping, Li Kefu, Shao Yong, Wu Wen, Li Jingting. Risk analysis for installation of parallel oil & gas pipelines[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation, 2013, 39(9): 1027-1028, 1033. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2013.09.023
Citation: Zhang Ping, Li Kefu, Shao Yong, Wu Wen, Li Jingting. Risk analysis for installation of parallel oil & gas pipelines[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation, 2013, 39(9): 1027-1028, 1033. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2013.09.023

油气管道并行敷设风险分析

Risk analysis for installation of parallel oil & gas pipelines

  • 摘要: 针对中国计划并行敷设的某油气管道进行失效概率分析,以欧洲石油公司CONCAWE针对原油管道的失效统计结果和EGIG发布的欧洲天然气管道事故数据为基础失效概率数据,对其进行修正和调整,确定并行敷设的原油与天然气管道的失效概率修正值。根据天然气管道失效引起原油管道失效的事件树及概率,得到原油管道并行敷设时的失效概率为6.66×10-5 km/a,比单独敷设时的失效概率增大不超过0.9%。结合管道失效后果,计算管道并行敷设带来的附加风险,将计算风险与可接受风险进行对比,指出两条管道并行敷设是可行的。

     

    Abstract: Research to the failure probability has been performed for a planed installation of parallel oil & gas pipelines in China. The statistics related to the failures of oil pipelines issued by a European company, CONCAWE and the data related to European natural gas pipelines accidents issued by EGIG have been used as the basic data for failure probability. Upon completion of correction and fine-tuning, corrected values for failure probability related to oil pipeline and natural gas pipeline installed in parallel way can be determined. In accordance with event tree and probability of oil pipelines induced by failure of natural gas pipeline, failure probability of parallel oil pipelines can be determined to be 6.66×10-5 km/yr, which is no more than 0.9% higher than the failure probability of pipelines installed independently. In addition, additional risks related to parallel pipelines can be calculated with consideration to consequences of pipeline failures. Through comparison between calculated risks and acceptable risks, it can be determined that parallel installation of two pipelines is acceptable.

     

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