尤秋菊, 樊建春, 朱伟, 白永强. 天然气管网系统风险评估[J]. 油气储运, 2013, 32(8): 834-839. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2013.08.008
引用本文: 尤秋菊, 樊建春, 朱伟, 白永强. 天然气管网系统风险评估[J]. 油气储运, 2013, 32(8): 834-839. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2013.08.008
You Qiuju, Fan Jianchun, Zhu Wei, Bai Yongqiang. Risk assessment of natural gas pipeline networks[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation, 2013, 32(8): 834-839. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2013.08.008
Citation: You Qiuju, Fan Jianchun, Zhu Wei, Bai Yongqiang. Risk assessment of natural gas pipeline networks[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation, 2013, 32(8): 834-839. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2013.08.008

天然气管网系统风险评估

Risk assessment of natural gas pipeline networks

  • 摘要: 为了更加客观地定量评估天然气管网系统风险,以北京市天然气管网系统为例,深入分析了引起管网事故的原因,对事故进行统计分析,建立了天然气管网系统风险评估指标体系。在对事故可能性的评估中,结合天然气管网本身参数设计和周围环境特点,通过对管道与管网的可靠性分析,实现对事故可能性的修正;在对后果严重程度的评估中,引入管网事故风险的承受能力和控制能力,对天然气管网脆弱性进行分析,实现了对后果严重程度的修正。对事故可能性和后果严重程度分级后,通过风险矩阵可以计算出天然气管网系统的风险等级。

     

    Abstract: In order to realize more objective quantitative risk assessment of natural gas pipeline network systems, this paper takes the natural gas pipeline network systems in Beijing as a case, thoroughly analyzes the possible factors causing pipeline network accidents, statistically analyzes the accidents, and establishes a risk assessment index system for natural gas pipeline network systems. In accident probability assessment, the accident probability is modified based on reliability analysis on pipelines and pipeline networks and integrated with designed parameters of natural gas pipeline networks and the characteristics of the surrounding environments, and in consequences severity assessment, risk tolerance and control capacity of pipeline networks accidents is included, vulnerability analysis of natural gas pipeline networks is finished, and correction of consequence severity is finally made possible. After accident probability and consequence severity is classified, the risk level of a natural gas pipeline networks is calculable relying on risk matrix.

     

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