王成武, 唐丽敏, 阎英美, 张莹. 我国北方沿海LPG海运需求预测[J]. 油气储运, 2012, 31(9): 647-651. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2012.09.002
引用本文: 王成武, 唐丽敏, 阎英美, 张莹. 我国北方沿海LPG海运需求预测[J]. 油气储运, 2012, 31(9): 647-651. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2012.09.002
WANG Chengwu, TANG Limin, YAN Yingmei, ZHANG Ying. Demand forecast of China's northern coastal LPG shipping[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation, 2012, 31(9): 647-651. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2012.09.002
Citation: WANG Chengwu, TANG Limin, YAN Yingmei, ZHANG Ying. Demand forecast of China's northern coastal LPG shipping[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation, 2012, 31(9): 647-651. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2012.09.002

我国北方沿海LPG海运需求预测

Demand forecast of China's northern coastal LPG shipping

  • 摘要: 我国LPG供需区域不平衡,产生了“北气南运”的海运需求。影响LPG海运需求的因素众多,采用定量与定性相结合的方法,分析了我国LPG海运需求的变化趋势。建立了BP神经网络模型,以北方LPG产量、南方LPG消费量和LPG进口量为输入神经元,以LPG“北气南运”运出量及海运需求为输出神经元。对于未引入模型的其他影响因素(替代能源天然气的利用、LPG作为化工原料使用)进行定性分析,进而对定量预测结果加以修正。研究结果表明:2011-2015年,我国LPG“北气南运”的海运需求将呈现递减趋势。

     

    Abstract: An investigation shows that regional imbalances in the supply and demand of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) in China results in a shipping demand where LPG is transported from north to south. There are a number of factors that affect China's LPG shipping demand. In this paper, the change trend of China's LPG shipping demand is analyzed by the method combined with quantitative and qualitative analysis, a BP neural network model is built with the input neuron of northern LPG output, southern LPG consumption and LPG imports and the output neuron of "LPG transported from north to south" shipping weight and shipping demand, qualitative analysis is carried out for the other influencing factors that have not been introduced into the model (use of alternative natural gas and use of LPG as chemical raw materials) and then quantitative forecasting results are amended. The results show that China's LPG "LPG transported from north to south" shipping demand will follow a decline trend during the year from 2011 to 2015.

     

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