朱本廷, 吴明, 陈军. 基于灰色系统理论改进模型的储罐腐蚀速率预测[J]. 油气储运, 2010, 29(9): 679-682. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2010.09.011
引用本文: 朱本廷, 吴明, 陈军. 基于灰色系统理论改进模型的储罐腐蚀速率预测[J]. 油气储运, 2010, 29(9): 679-682. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2010.09.011
Zhu Benting, Wu Ming, Chen Jun. Corrosion Rate Prediction of Tank Based on Modified Grey System Theory Model[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation, 2010, 29(9): 679-682. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2010.09.011
Citation: Zhu Benting, Wu Ming, Chen Jun. Corrosion Rate Prediction of Tank Based on Modified Grey System Theory Model[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation, 2010, 29(9): 679-682. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2010.09.011

基于灰色系统理论改进模型的储罐腐蚀速率预测

Corrosion Rate Prediction of Tank Based on Modified Grey System Theory Model

  • 摘要: 采用灰色系统理论中灰色动态模型GM(1,1)的改进模型,对储罐实际统计的腐蚀速率数据进行灰色动态模拟,建立了相应的预测方程。对储罐罐顶、罐壁和罐底板的腐蚀速率进行预测,结果表明:预测值与实际值吻合较好,预测方程具有很高的稳定性和精确性。该预测方程可利用较少的实际数据进行储罐各部分未来任意时刻的腐蚀速率预测,从而为储罐的腐蚀防护和安全管理提供科学依据。

     

    Abstract: Grey dynamic simulation on statistical corrosion rate data of tank is made by adopting modified grey dynamic model GM(1, 1) in grey system theory.Relative predictive equations are set up to forecast the corrosion rate of tank top, tank shell and bottom plate, Predictive accuracy is tested.Results show that predicted value is agreed well with the actual value, and the predictive equations have higher stability and accuracy.It is considered that the predictive equations can be used to forecast corrosion rate of tank in each part at future any time with less actual data, thus providing corrosion control and safety management of tank with scientific basis.

     

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