张文轲, 张劲军, 丁建林. 中洛输油管道输量和出站温度概率分布[J]. 油气储运, 2010, 29(1): 32-35, 91. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2010.01.009
引用本文: 张文轲, 张劲军, 丁建林. 中洛输油管道输量和出站温度概率分布[J]. 油气储运, 2010, 29(1): 32-35, 91. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2010.01.009
ZHANG Wenke, ZHANG Jingjun, DING Jianlin. Study on Probability Distribution of Flowrate and Outlet Temperature over ZhongLuo Crude Oil Pipeline[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation, 2010, 29(1): 32-35, 91. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2010.01.009
Citation: ZHANG Wenke, ZHANG Jingjun, DING Jianlin. Study on Probability Distribution of Flowrate and Outlet Temperature over ZhongLuo Crude Oil Pipeline[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation, 2010, 29(1): 32-35, 91. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2010.01.009

中洛输油管道输量和出站温度概率分布

Study on Probability Distribution of Flowrate and Outlet Temperature over ZhongLuo Crude Oil Pipeline

  • 摘要: 管道输量和出站温度对凝管等管道流动风险具有重要影响, 同时也是具有不确定性的两个重要运行参数, 其概率分布模型是凝管概率分析所必需的基础资料。采用矩估计法对中洛管道濮阳首站2006年稳定运行时的外输输量和出站温度进行了参数估计, 并使用Kolmogorov-Smirnov单样本检验进行非参数分布检验。结果表明, 在按照开泵方案进行分组后, 使用正态分布描述输量和出站温度的概率分布最合适。

     

    Abstract: Throughput of pipeline and outlet temperature are two important operating parameters with uncertainty, which has significant impact on pipe-gelled-like flowing risk, and their probability distribution model is an essential basic information to analyze the pipe-gelled probability distribution.With the method of moments, parameters estimation is made on transportation throughput and outlet temperature of Puyang Initial Pumping Station in ZhongLuo Oil Pipeline at stable operating circumstances in 2006, and Kolmogorov-Smirnov single sample test method is made on non-parameter distribution test.Resultsshow that normal distribution can preferably describe probability distribution of throughput and outlet temperature after pumps are divided into groups according to pump start-up program.

     

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