基于证据理论的油库安全综合评估模型研究
Research on a Comprehensive Safety Evaluation Model for Oil Tankfarms Based on Evidence Theory
-
摘要: 分析了传统油库综合评估方法的优缺点。为了弥补传统评估方法不能同时考虑信息的模糊性和未知性特征的不足, 将证据理论引入油库综合评估领域, 提出了基于证据理论的油库综合评估模型。对专家评判中由于主观性造成的不确定性问题, 采用可靠信度及信度的融合对其展开分析, 从而实现对油库系统的模糊性和未知性信息进行综合研究。引用实例将该模型和传统的模糊综合评估模型进行对比, 结果表明, 基于证据理论的油库综合评估模型具有可行性和优越性。Abstract: Relative merits of traditional comprehensive safety evaluation methods for oil tankfarms are analyzed. In order to overcome the drawbacks existed when traditional evaluation methods do not fully consider the fuzzy and unknown characteristics of information, evidence theory method is introduced into the field of oil tankfarms' comprehensive safety evaluation and an evidence theory-based model for oil tankfarm comprehensive safety evaluation is put forward. The model analyses the uncertain problems reflected on subjectivity in expert ' s opinion by basic probability assignment and its fusion, and then makes a comprehensive research on the fuzzy and unknown information in oil tankfarm systems. A comparison is made between the model and traditional model of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation with an example, and the result indicates that the evidence theory-based model is of usability and advantage for oil tankfarms' comprehensive safety evaluation.