基于输送压力的腐蚀管道失效概率的预测
Transportation Pressure-based Forecast for the Failure Probability of Corroded Pipeline
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摘要: 以腐蚀管道失效压力分析为基础, 建立了腐蚀管道可靠性极限状态函数模型。以规则化的随机变量形式表示, 采用改进的一次二阶矩法对腐蚀管道的失效概率进行了分析和计算。对一条输油管道进行了检测, 并对其腐蚀缺陷数据、运行参数和管材性能参数进行了统计分析, 运用提出的概率数学模型计算了管道全线的失效概率。与推荐的目标失效概率进行了比较, 指出了对管道重点维修和监测的区段。Abstract: Based on the failure pipeline pressure analysis, a limit state function for assessment of failure pipeline is established, and the rule of random variable form is expressed.The analysis and calculation on failure probability of the corroded pipeline are carried out with improved first order and second moment reliability method.An inspection is made to an oil transportation pipeline and a statistical analysis is carried out to corrosive defect data, operation parameters and the performance of pipe materials.The failure probability of the entire pipeline is computed in accordance with the proposed mathematical model.The computed results of failure probabilities are compared with the suggested target failure probability and pipeline sections for further repairing and monitoring are determine.