刘晓东, 李著信. 应用Monte-Carlo法计算输油管道腐蚀失效概率[J]. 油气储运, 2007, 26(12): 16-19. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2007.12.004
引用本文: 刘晓东, 李著信. 应用Monte-Carlo法计算输油管道腐蚀失效概率[J]. 油气储运, 2007, 26(12): 16-19. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2007.12.004
LIU Xiaodong, LI Zhuxin. Using Monte-Carlo Method to Calculate Failure Probability of Oil Pipeline[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation, 2007, 26(12): 16-19. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2007.12.004
Citation: LIU Xiaodong, LI Zhuxin. Using Monte-Carlo Method to Calculate Failure Probability of Oil Pipeline[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation, 2007, 26(12): 16-19. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2007.12.004

应用Monte-Carlo法计算输油管道腐蚀失效概率

Using Monte-Carlo Method to Calculate Failure Probability of Oil Pipeline

  • 摘要: 在对埋地管道进行腐蚀失效风险分析的过程中, 用传统的数学解析方法无法计算管道的失效概率, 而应用Monte-Carlo方法无需知道腐蚀速率的具体值, 只需知道腐蚀速率的概率分布, 或根据统计数据求出腐蚀速率的概率分布, 就可模拟腐蚀失效过程。借助MATLAB的强大数值计算功能, 可以提高Monte-Carlo抽样模拟的效率。经对某一实际管道失效概率的计算, 验证了Monte-Carlo方法的可行性。

     

    Abstract: During the process of analyzing failure risk of corrosion in buried pipeline, it is difficult to calculate failure probability of pipeline with traditional mathematic analytic methods. But when adopting Monte Carlo method, it is unnecessary to know the actual value of corrosion rate. By knowing the probability distribution of corrosion rate, or determining the probability distribution of corrosion rate from statistical data, corrosion process may be simulated easily. In virtue of the powerful function in value calculation. Monte-Carlo ' s spot simulation may be improved effectively. By calculating the failure probability of a given pipeline, the feasibility of Monte-Carlo is proved.

     

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