English
霍春勇, 董玉华, 高惠临, 阎凤霞. 管道故障树基本事件分析的德尔斐法[J]. 油气储运, 2005, 24(1): 8-11. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2005.01.003
引用本文: 霍春勇, 董玉华, 高惠临, 阎凤霞. 管道故障树基本事件分析的德尔斐法[J]. 油气储运, 2005, 24(1): 8-11. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2005.01.003
shu
HUO Chunyong, DONG Yuhua, . The Application of Delphi Method In the Basic Event Analysis of Pipeline Fault Tree[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation, 2005, 24(1): 8-11. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2005.01.003
Citation: HUO Chunyong, DONG Yuhua, . The Application of Delphi Method In the Basic Event Analysis of Pipeline Fault Tree[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation, 2005, 24(1): 8-11. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2005.01.003
shu

管道故障树基本事件分析的德尔斐法

The Application of Delphi Method In the Basic Event Analysis of Pipeline Fault Tree

    摘要
  • 摘要: 在油气输送管道故障树基本事件的分析中, 德尔斐法是一种有效的分析方法。该方法是通过表格设计、专家选择、匿名函询、统计分析、模糊集处理和计算机建模等步骤, 以获取故障树基本事件的发生概率, 从而对油气输送管道故障树进行定量分析。

     

    Abstract: Delphi method is an effective method in the basic event analysis of pipeline fault tree. The probabilities of the basic event in pipeline fault tree can be estimated by Delphi method which includes following step: design of data form; select of experts; gather and check of data; statistical and fuzzy analysis of data. From the analysis of probability of basic events, the factors affecting pipeline failure are determined.

     

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