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陈俊, 张劲军, 李鸿英. 含蜡原油粘度预测模型的可靠性分析[J]. 油气储运, 2003, 22(12): 16-18. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2003.12.003
引用本文: 陈俊, 张劲军, 李鸿英. 含蜡原油粘度预测模型的可靠性分析[J]. 油气储运, 2003, 22(12): 16-18. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2003.12.003
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CHEN Jun, ZHANG Jinjun, . Reliability Analysis of the Viscosity Pr edicting Model for Waxy Crudes[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation, 2003, 22(12): 16-18. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2003.12.003
Citation: CHEN Jun, ZHANG Jinjun, . Reliability Analysis of the Viscosity Pr edicting Model for Waxy Crudes[J]. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation, 2003, 22(12): 16-18. DOI: 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2003.12.003
shu

含蜡原油粘度预测模型的可靠性分析

Reliability Analysis of the Viscosity Pr edicting Model for Waxy Crudes

    摘要
  • 摘要: 在给定门限偏差的条件下, 模型预测结果的正确与否可以用二项式分布的可靠度函数来描述。用经历不同热历史、不同剪切历史、不同处理条件的47种油样的3 458个粘度实测数据, 对李鸿英等人提出的含蜡原油粘度模型预测结果的可靠性进行了分析。结果表明, 当门限偏差分别为10%和15%时, 粘度预测结果正确的可靠度在70.1%和81.9%以上, 说明该粘度模型具有较高的可靠性。

     

    Abstract: With a given bias threshold, the correctness for a prediction model can be descr ibed by a reliability function of binomial distribution. The reliability of the viscosity predicting m odel for waxy crudes is ana-lyzed by using 3458 viscosity data points from 47 waxy crudes with various therm al and shear history. The result shows that the reliability of the model is above 70.1% when the given bi as threshold is 10%, and above 81.9% with the threshold of 15%. It indicates that the viscosity predicti ng model has a high reliability.

     

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