Abstract:
As China joints WTO, the natural gas (NG) consumption market of China will grow up in the international environment of market economy. Whether a NG program is worked out, a NG "take-or-pay" trade a-greement is made, or a NG engineering project in the upper course or lower course is designed, and so on, it is necessay and important to predict accurately the consumption level on the NG market in medium-long term. This paper analyzes the present situation of NG consumption, its developing trend and factors of effect upon it on the NG market of China, and it introduces the methods and their choice principles of trend inference method, regression analysis method, grey forecast method, scene analysis method for NG consumption level forecast.