Abstract:
Objective Extreme events such as natural disasters, geopolitical conflicts, and cyberattacks have become significant challenges threatening the safe operation of China's oil and gas pipelines. To systematically identify core risks, reveal their mechanisms, and construct a set of effective prevention and control strategies, thereby enhancing the resilience and reliability of national oil and gas pipelines under extreme scenarios, targeted research is urgently needed.
Methods By combining literature review with analysis of typical cases, this study systematically examined typical domestic and international cases of extreme events involving oil and gas pipelines. Through in-depth analysis of the triggering mechanisms, failure modes, emergency responses, and post-disaster support mechanisms of these events, the operational characteristics and evolutionary patterns of different types of extreme events were revealed.
Results Five core extreme risk factors affecting the safety of oil and gas pipeline systems were innovatively identified and summarized: ① extreme natural disasters, ② terrorist attacks, ③ local wars, ④ electrical ignition sources, and ⑤ cyberattacks. The typical manifestations and hazard mechanisms of each risk factor were systematically explained. Building on this, five targeted and actionable prevention and control strategies were proposed: strengthening monitoring and early warning, enhancing physical emergency response capabilities, ensuring strategic backup supplies, implementing strict technical controls, and building a comprehensive defense system.
Conclusion This study identified major risk factors for extreme oil and gas events and proposed specific implementation pathways for prevention and control measures. The research findings can provide theoretical support and technical reference for the safety design and operational management of China's oil and gas pipelines in the face of complex and variable extreme risks. They also offer an important basis for the national level to improve the security system of energy infrastructure and formulate targeted pipeline protection policies and emergency preparedness strategies. This study holds significant theoretical value and practical guiding significance for comprehensively enhancing the risk resistance and reliable operation level of China's oil and gas pipeline system under extreme scenarios.