天然气管道失效事故统计与多因素耦合机制

Natural gas pipeline failure accidents: statistics and multi-factor coupling mechanism

  • 摘要:
    目的 天然气管道失效事故严重威胁能源输送安全、公共安全及生态环境,然而,当前缺乏对于天然气管道失效机制与规律的深入探究。因此,通过厘清跨国数据差异,揭示管道失效事故的成因机制与时空演化规律,分析多因素耦合对管道完整性的影响,为管道安全管理体系的优化提供理论与技术支撑。
    方法 基于美国运输部管道和危险品安全管理局(Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration, PHMSA)、欧洲天然气管道事故数据组(European Gas Pipeline Incident Data Group, EGIG)、加拿大能源监管署(Canada Energy Regulator, CER)及中国管道事故数据,采用标准化分类体系(腐蚀、材料缺陷、第三方破坏等6类)进行多维度分析,系统梳理天然气管道失效原因的分类方法及影响因素,运用统计分析、案例剖析等方法,深入探究各因素间的相互作用关系及其对管道失效的影响机制。
    结果 不同国家及地区天然气管道失效原因各异,主要集中在材料设备、腐蚀、第三方破坏等方面,其中美国与加拿大事故类型有一定相似性,皆以材料/焊接/设备失效主导,欧洲侧重于第三方破坏,中国打孔盗气占比突出,而腐蚀则为各国家地区管道面临的共性风险。从事故率变化趋势来看,各国通过技术进步与管理强化使事故率显著下降,但仍面临管道老龄化问题。天然气管道失效原因由技术、管理、环境三大因素共同作用引起,管道失效发展趋势遵循一定的时空规律,在时间上总体符合“浴盆曲线”,在空间上受地理环境、管道设计参数及社会活动等因素的显著影响。
    结论 天然气管道失效事故的防控需综合考虑多方面因素及其耦合作用,针对性地制定并实施全方位、多层次的安全管理策略,通过提升管道整体安全性能,促进天然气行业的健康可持续发展。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective Natural gas pipeline failures pose significant risks to energy transportation, public safety, and the environment. However, there remains a lack of comprehensive understanding of the failure mechanisms and patterns affecting these pipelines. By analyzing cross-national data differences, elucidating cause-effect relationships, and examining the spatio-temporal evolution of pipeline failures, as well as assessing the impact of multi-factor interactions on pipeline integrity, this research aims to provide theoretical and technical support for optimizing pipeline safety management systems.
    Methods Using pipeline accident data from the US Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA), the European Gas Pipeline Incident Data Group (EGIG), the Canada Energy Regulator (CER), and China, a standardized classification system with six categories—including corrosion, material defects, and third-party damage—was applied for multidimensional analysis. The classification methods and influencing factors of natural gas pipeline failures were systematically reviewed. Statistical analysis, case studies, and other approaches were employed to thoroughly investigate the interactions among various factors and their impact mechanisms on pipeline failures.
    Results The causes of natural gas pipeline failures vary across countries and regions, primarily involving materials and equipment, corrosion, and third-party damage. The United States and Canada share similar accident profiles, dominated by material, welding, and equipment failures. Europe experiences more third-party damage, while gas theft by puncturing pipelines is notably prevalent in China. Corrosion remains a common risk worldwide. Although technological advances and strengthened management have significantly reduced accident rates, pipeline aging remains a persistent challenge. Natural gas pipeline failures result from the combined effects of technology, management, and environmental factors. Their development follows distinct spatio-temporal patterns, generally conforming to a “bathtub curve” over time and being significantly influenced spatially by geography, pipeline design parameters, and social activities.
    Conclusion Effective prevention and control of natural gas pipeline failures require a comprehensive approach that considers multiple factors and their coupling. Implementing targeted, integrated, and multi-level safety management strategies is essential to enhance pipeline safety and support the sustainable development of the natural gas industry.

     

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