Abstract:
Objective Natural gas safety remains a critical issue for China’s energy security. A scientific assessment of China’s natural gas safety is essential for effective energy strategy development and supply security. However, a comprehensive evaluation system that integrates Chinese characteristics, industry consensus, and practical operability has yet to be established.
Methods Utilizing the CNKI (China National Knowledge Infrastructure) database as the sole data source, searches for “natural gas safety” and “natural gas risk” were conducted. Through bibliometric and content analysis, the methods for constructing China’s natural gas safety evaluation indicator system were systematically reviewed across five aspects: indicator selection, screening methods, assignment techniques, weight determination, and safety rating approaches. Current research gaps were identified, and future research directions were outlined.
Results (1) China’s natural gas safety evaluation should encompass six dimensions: domestic production, resource imports, market demand, price level, infrastructure, and the economic-social environment. The first three dimensions are central to the current evaluation system, with 10 of the 14 most frequently used indicators (over 10% usage) belonging to these dimensions, accounting for 71.4%. The three most widely used indicators are external dependence, natural gas consumption intensity, and reserve-production ratio, with frequencies of 60.3%, 46.6%, and 46.6%, respectively. (2) The current indicators selected for China’s natural gas safety evaluation system are generally indirect or secondary indicators. Among the 14 most frequently used indicators (over 10% usage), all but per capita GDP and transport distance are indirect indicators, meaning they must be derived from other data. (3) There is a shift from subjective judgment to mathematical methods/models in indicator screening and weight determination. The entropy weight method (44.8%) and principal component analysis (24.1%) are the most frequently used. Despite progress, a widely accepted natural gas safety evaluation indicator system has not yet been established in China.
Conclusion A natural gas safety evaluation system tailored to China’s national context, aligned with domestic policy, and balancing scientific rigor with operability should be developed. Dynamic monitoring and iterative adjustments are vital to support national energy security decision-making and the industry’s sustainable development.