中国天然气安全评价指标体系构建方法综述

A review of methods for constructing China’s natural gas safety evaluation indicator system

  • 摘要:
    目的 天然气安全始终是中国能源安全的重点关切,科学评估中国天然气安全程度是制定能源战略、保障供应安全的前提,但至今尚未形成一套兼具中国特色、行业共识且可操作的评价体系。
    方法 以CNKI数据库为唯一数据源,分别以天然气安全、天然气风险为主题词进行检索,采用文献计量与内容分析相结合的手段,从指标选择结果、指标筛选方法、指标赋值技术、权重确定方法及安全评级方法5个层次,系统梳理了中国天然气安全评价指标体系的构建方法,对当前研究的不足之处进行了全面分析,并展望了未来研究的重点方向。
    结果 ①中国天然气安全评价应涵盖国内生产、资源进口、市场需求、价格水平、基础设施、经济社会环境6个维度,其中前3个维度是当前中国天然气安全评价体系的核心关注点,在现有文献中使用频率超过10%的14个指标中,有10个隶属于此3个维度,占比高达71.4%。对外依存度、天然气消费强度、储采比是应用最为广泛的3个指标,出现频率分别达60.3%、46.6%、46.6%。②当前中国天然气安全评价体系的指标选取仍普遍沿用间接指标/二次指标。在现有文献中出现频率超过10%的14个指标中,除人均GDP、运输距离外,其余指标均为间接指标,即需要通过其他数据进行计算后才能获得。③无论是指标筛选还是权重的确定,当前的研究均呈现出由主观经验判断转向引入数学方法或数学模型的发展趋势。熵权法、主成分分析法是当前应用较多的指标权重确定方法,两种方法在现有文献中的使用频率分别达44.8%、24.1%。在实践应用层面,当前中国仍未建成具有广泛共识的天然气安全评价指标体系。
    结论 今后应建立符合中国国情、与国内政策阈值衔接、兼具科学性与可操作性的天然气安全评价体系,实现动态监测、滚动校正,以支撑国家能源安全决策与行业可持续发展。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective Natural gas safety remains a critical issue for China’s energy security. A scientific assessment of China’s natural gas safety is essential for effective energy strategy development and supply security. However, a comprehensive evaluation system that integrates Chinese characteristics, industry consensus, and practical operability has yet to be established.
    Methods Utilizing the CNKI (China National Knowledge Infrastructure) database as the sole data source, searches for “natural gas safety” and “natural gas risk” were conducted. Through bibliometric and content analysis, the methods for constructing China’s natural gas safety evaluation indicator system were systematically reviewed across five aspects: indicator selection, screening methods, assignment techniques, weight determination, and safety rating approaches. Current research gaps were identified, and future research directions were outlined.
    Results (1) China’s natural gas safety evaluation should encompass six dimensions: domestic production, resource imports, market demand, price level, infrastructure, and the economic-social environment. The first three dimensions are central to the current evaluation system, with 10 of the 14 most frequently used indicators (over 10% usage) belonging to these dimensions, accounting for 71.4%. The three most widely used indicators are external dependence, natural gas consumption intensity, and reserve-production ratio, with frequencies of 60.3%, 46.6%, and 46.6%, respectively. (2) The current indicators selected for China’s natural gas safety evaluation system are generally indirect or secondary indicators. Among the 14 most frequently used indicators (over 10% usage), all but per capita GDP and transport distance are indirect indicators, meaning they must be derived from other data. (3) There is a shift from subjective judgment to mathematical methods/models in indicator screening and weight determination. The entropy weight method (44.8%) and principal component analysis (24.1%) are the most frequently used. Despite progress, a widely accepted natural gas safety evaluation indicator system has not yet been established in China.
    Conclusion A natural gas safety evaluation system tailored to China’s national context, aligned with domestic policy, and balancing scientific rigor with operability should be developed. Dynamic monitoring and iterative adjustments are vital to support national energy security decision-making and the industry’s sustainable development.

     

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