基于分层建模的压缩机组动态可靠性计算方法

Dynamic Reliability Calculation Method for Compressor Units Based on Hierarchical Modeling

  • 摘要: 目的压缩机组作为长输管网的关键动力设备,其可靠性直接关系输气系统的安全性与输送能力。针对压缩机组各子系统失效机理各异、传统方法难以统一评价的问题,开展基于分层建模可靠性研究,以实现多系统耦合条件下可靠性的定量评估与动态表征。方法构建分层可靠性评价模型,将压缩机组分解为系统层和子系统层。在子系统层,分别建立了机械、热力及辅助系统的可靠性模型:其中机械系统基于应力-强度干涉理论,结合有限元分析与蒙特卡罗方法,对叶轮、轴承等关键部件进行可靠度计算;热力系统基于多变压缩理论与无量纲性能曲线,选取喘振裕度、效率衰减及异常状态为关键指标,并采用层次分析法确定权重,构建综合评价模型;辅助系统基于多机组历史运行数据,建立指数分布故障模型进行可靠性评估。在系统层,建立子系统之间的结构逻辑关系,并通过将子系统可靠度与关键运行参数动态关联,提出适用于变工况条件的整机可靠度动态计算方法。结果本文研究建立了基于分层建模的压缩机组动态可靠性计算方法,对于子系统层,根据各子系统的特点分别建立可靠性模型;对于压缩机组系统,则建立了基于子系统间逻辑关系的系统动态可靠性模型。结论所提出的基于分层建模的可靠性评价与动态计算方法,有效刻画了压缩机组在多系统耦合及变工况条件下的可靠性演化规律,可显著提高评估精度与动态化水平,并能为压缩机组运行状态评估、维护决策及寿命预测提供理论依据与技术支撑,对保障天然气长输管网的安全运行具有参考价值。

     

    Abstract: Objective As a key power equipment in long-distance pipeline networks, the reliability of compressor units directly affects the safety and transmission capacity of gas transmission systems. In response to the problem that the failure mechanisms of various subsystems of compressor units differ and traditional methods are difficult to evaluate uniformly, this study conducts reliability research based on hierarchical modeling to achieve quantitative evaluation and dynamic characterization of reliability under multi-system coupling conditions. Methods A hierarchical reliability evaluation model is constructed, decomposing the compressor unit into system layer and subsystem layer. At the subsystem layer, reliability models for mechanical, thermal, and auxiliary systems are established respectively: the mechanical system is based on stress-strength interference theory, combined with finite element analysis and Monte Carlo methods, to calculate the reliability of key components such as impellers and bearings; the thermal system is based on polytropic compression theory and dimensionless performance curves, selecting surge margin, efficiency degradation, and abnormal states as key indicators, and using the analytic hierarchy process to determine weights to construct a comprehensive evaluation model; the auxiliary system is based on historical operation data of multiple units to establish an exponential distribution failure model for reliability assessment. At the system layer, structural logic relationships between subsystems are established, and by dynamically correlating subsystem reliability with key operating parameters, a dynamic calculation method for overall machine reliability suitable for variable operating conditions is proposed Results This research establishes a dynamic reliability calculation method for compressor units based on hierarchical modeling. For the subsystem layer, reliability models are established separately according to the characteristics of each subsystem; for the compressor unit system, a system dynamic reliability model based on the logical relationships between subsystems is established. Conclusion The proposed reliability evaluation and dynamic calculation method based on hierarchical modeling effectively characterizes the reliability evolution law of compressor units under multi-system coupling and variable operating conditions, which can significantly improve evaluation accuracy and dynamic level, and can provide theoretical basis and technical support for compressor unit operating status assessment, maintenance decision-making, and life prediction, having reference value for ensuring the safe operation of natural gas long-distance pipeline networks.

     

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