“质能网”下氢基能源输送路径经济评估与发展建议

Economic evaluation and development recommendations for hydrogen-based energy transport pathways within the substance-energy network

  • 摘要:
    目的 在新型能源体系加速建设、绿电消纳瓶颈日益凸显的背景下,绿色氢基能源成为解决系列问题的重要技术路径。不同氢基能源形态的输送特性存在显著差异,对管网系统的技术标准、运行参数及安全要求各不相同,输送路径的经济性优选难题尚未系统厘清,亟需开展针对性研究。
    方法 基于新型能源“质能网”理论框架,从氢基能源输送路径全生命周期视角,构建涵盖资源侧转换、跨区域输送、需求侧转换全环节的综合运输成本模型。以新疆(资源侧)至长三角(需求侧)为基准场景,系统测算终端用氢、用甲烷、用甲醇、用合成氨四类典型场景需求下,18种不同氢基能源输送路径的成本水平,开展关键参数敏感性分析,并对各环节成本构成进行量化分解。
    结果 研究表明,终端用氢情景下,直接输氢路径经济性最优(2.06~2.93元/kg),显著优于各类储氢载体路径。终端用甲醇、合成氨及甲烷情景下,在资源侧完成能源形态转换后直接输送对应介质的综合成本最低;既有油气管道的利旧改造可有效降低跨区域输送成本,并提升整个输送系统抵御成本波动的抗风险能力。
    结论 基于上述研究结果,建议加强氢能输送战略通道规划,以科技创新推进储运与转换环节技术升级,强化产业链上中下游协同布局,深化“制输转用”全链条场景开发,为新型能源“质能网”下氢能输送体系规划提供决策参考。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective Driven by the accelerated development of the new energy system and growing bottlenecks for green power accommodation, green hydrogen-based energy represents a critical technical solution to a series of systemic challenges. Hydrogen-based energy carriers feature distinct transport properties and impose different requirements on pipeline networks in terms of technical standards, operating parameters and safety specifications. However, the economic optimization of transport pathways remains insufficiently explored, calling for dedicated research.
    Methods Based on the theoretical framework of the substance-energy network, this study establishes a life-cycle comprehensive cost model covering resource-side conversion, interregional transport, and demand-side conversion. Taking the Xinjiang-to-Yangtze River Delta route as the baseline scenario, we quantify the costs of 18 hydrogen-based energy transport pathways under four end-use cases: direct hydrogen consumption, methane consumption, methanol consumption, and synthetic ammonia consumption. A sensitivity analysis of key parameters is performed, and the cost components of each segment are quantitatively decomposed.
    Results The results show that for end-use hydrogen applications, direct hydrogen transport delivers the best economic performance (CNY 2.06–2.93/kg), substantially outperforming all pathways relying on hydrogen carriers. For end-use methanol, synthetic ammonia and methane applications, the lowest overall cost is achieved when energy conversion is implemented at the resource side prior to transporting the corresponding media. Repurposing existing oil and gas pipelines can effectively reduce interregional transport costs and improve the system’s resilience against cost fluctuations.
    Conclusion This study proposes strengthening the planning of strategic hydrogen transport corridors, advancing technological upgrades for storage, transport and conversion via innovation, promoting coordinated upstream–midstream–downstream industrial layout, and expanding full-chain “production–transportation–conversion–utilization” scenarios. The findings provide decision support for developing hydrogen transport systems under the new substance-energy network.

     

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