Objective Amid the global energy transition and intensifying major-power competition, securing liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports has become vital to China’s strategy for building an “Energy Powerhouse”. Traditional research often treats geopolitical risk as a broad context, lacking quantitative tools to analyze its structural impacts and country-specific variations within the global energy supply chain. To accurately characterize the full spectrum of geopolitical risks facing China’s LNG imports, there is an urgent need to develop a spatially disaggregated analysis framework.

Methods From the integrated perspectives of energy geography and geopolitics, a multi-level evaluation system was established, covering four risk dimensions: source country, transportation corridor, key chokepoints, and infrastructure. Using multi-source heterogeneous data—including United Nations (UN) trade statistics, automatic identification system (AIS) shipping trajectories, and geopolitical risk indices—quantitative measurements of China’s LNG import geopolitical risks were conducted annually from 2020 to 2024.

Results Significant variations in comprehensive risks were identified. Nigeria and Qatar were classified as high-risk countries; six others, including Russia and the United States, as medium-risk; and Australia and Brunei as low-risk. Risk profiles demonstrated clear country-level heterogeneity. The United States showed pronounced source country risk, Nigeria had the highest transportation corridor risk, while both Qatar and Nigeria faced elevated key chokepoint risks. Infrastructure vulnerabilities were widespread in many countries. Dominant risk drivers varied by country, including policy uncertainty in the United States, route fragility in Nigeria, and single-corridor dependence in Qatar.

Conclusion The multi-dimensional characteristics and country-level heterogeneity of geopolitical risks in China’s LNG imports highlight the need to shift energy security governance from broad narratives to targeted, spatially disaggregated strategies. Implementing tailored approaches based on the dominant risk type of each source country is crucial for enhancing supply resilience. This study offers an analytical tool for quantifying energy geopolitical risks, while future research should integrate dynamic early-warning models to strengthen real-time risk monitoring.