基于中心认知智能体的油气管道多源感知风险评估方法

A multi-source sensing risk assessment method for oil and gas pipelines based on a central cognitive agent

  • 摘要:
    目的 长输油气管道沿线已逐步部署光纤振动预警、泄漏监测、无人机巡检及视频监控等感知模型,但多模型告警之间仍存在时间尺度不一致、空间基准不统一、证据冲突难解释及人工复核压力大等问题。为支撑管道安全风险由单点告警向综合研判转变,提出一种基于中心认知智能体的油气管道多源感知风险评估方法。
    方法 构建面向管道事件的多源感知数据组织方式,将光纤振动、压力声学、无人机图像及视频目标检测结果统一映射为结构化风险证据;构建光纤预警、泄漏监测、无人机巡检及视频监控4类专项感知模型,分别完成振动事件识别、泄漏状态判断、巡检目标识别及视频目标检测,并对各模型输出进行统一置信度校准;在专项感知模型输出层之上构建中心认知智能体,以结构化多源证据作为事件状态,结合时空对齐结果,根据当前证据状态调用历史案例检索、业务规则检索及事件记忆查询等功能模块,并利用大语言模型完成证据一致性判断、风险归因及处置建议生成;对于证据冲突或信息不足的事件,通过补充检索、规则校验更新事件状态,最终输出风险等级、证据依据、原因解释及处置建议,最后人工复核结果会进一步反馈至事件记忆。
    结果 以2条脱敏在役管道回放数据为对象开展试验,所提方法的精确率、召回率、F1分数分别达到94.08%、91.76%、92.91%,误报率降至4.90%,相校于另外4种风险评估方法,F1分数更高、误报率更低。跨管道测试中,由管道1向管道2迁移、由管道2向管道1迁移采用所提方法的F1分数分别达到90.42%、91.03%,表现出较好的迁移稳定性。
    结论 中心认知智能体能够在不替代现场专项感知模型的前提下,对异构告警进行可解释综合研判,提升复杂场景下风险识别的召回率、误报抑制能力及工程可用性,为长输管道智能巡护与应急处置提供技术支撑。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective Long-distance oil and gas pipelines increasingly use multiple sensing systems. These include fiber-optic vibration warning, leak monitoring, unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) inspection, and video surveillance. However, multi-model alerts often suffer from inconsistent time scales, mismatched spatial references, unexplainable evidence conflicts, and heavy manual verification workloads. Pipeline safety risk analysis is moving from single-point alerts to integrated assessment. To support this shift, this study proposes a multi-source sensing risk assessment method for oil and gas pipelines. The method is based on a central cognitive agent.
    Methods This study establishes a multi-source sensing data organization framework for pipeline incidents. Outputs from fiber-optic vibration detection, pressure/acoustic monitoring, UAV imagery, and video object detection are mapped into structured risk evidence. Four dedicated sensing models are constructed for fiber-optic early warning, leak monitoring, UAV inspection, and video surveillance. They perform vibration event identification, leak condition evaluation, inspection target recognition, and video object detection. Confidence calibration is uniformly applied across all model outputs. A central cognitive agent is built on the output layer of the dedicated sensing models.The agent treats structured multi-source evidence as event states and incorporates spatio-temporal alignment results. It invokes functional modules for historical case retrieval, operational rule retrieval, and event memory query. It also uses large language models to verify evidence consistency, attribute risks, and generate handling recommendations. For incidents with conflicting evidence or insufficient information, incident states are updated through supplementary retrieval and rule verification. Finally, risk levels, supporting evidence, causal explanations, and handling recommendations are generated. Manually reviewed results are further fed back into incident memory.
    Results Experiments are conducted using desensitized playback data from two in-service pipelines. The proposed method achieves a precision of 94.08%, a recall of 91.76%, and an F1-score of 92.91%, with the false alarm rate reduced to 4.90%. Compared with four other risk assessment methods, it obtains a higher F1-score and a lower false alarm rate. In cross-pipeline tests, the method attains F1-scores of 90.42% for migration from Pipeline 1 to Pipeline 2 and 91.03% for migration from Pipeline 2 to Pipeline 1, demonstrating favorable migration stability.
    Conclusion Without replacing dedicated on-site sensing models, the central cognitive agent enables interpretable, comprehensive reasoning over heterogeneous alerts. It significantly enhances risk identification recall, false alarm suppression capability, and engineering practicability, providing robust technical support for intelligent pipeline inspection and emergency response.

     

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