考虑抗力折减的逆断层作用下埋地钢质管道失效概率分析

Failure probability analysis of buried steel pipelines under reverse faulting considering resistance reduction

  • 摘要: 逆断层永久地表位移威胁着埋地管道安全运行,服役管道抗力退化进一步增大了其在断层作用下的失效风险。针对断层灾害下管道安全评估中的抗力退化难以量化问题,提出一种基于抗力折减的可靠度分析框架。首先建立经全尺寸试验校核的逆断层埋地X80钢管三维有限元模型,在参数化工况中考虑钢级、管径、断层倾角、径厚比和震级等因素,形成1553组有效有限元样本。随后以最大环向应力、等效塑性应变、对数应变和位移为响应量,构建可嵌入MonteCarlo模拟的SSA-BP代理模型。进一步将抗力折减系数RF引入极限状态函数抗力项,建立折减后材料抗力与代理模型预测应力之间的安全裕度判定失效,并显式考虑代理模型残差传播。结果表明,径厚比增大和RF降低会显著抬高失效概率;在RF=1.0时,D/t由36增至66使失效概率由约71.9%升至约92.4%,当D/t=66且RF=0.8时失效概率接近100%。研究表明,环向应力超限适合作为本文参数空间下的主可靠度判据,PEEQ和LE可作为局部塑性与屈曲变形复核指标。

     

    Abstract: Reverse-fault-induced permanent ground displacement threatens the safe operation of buried pipelines, and resistance degradation of in-service pipelines further increases their failure risk under faulting. Aiming at the difficulty in quantifying resistance degradation in pipeline safety assessment under fault hazards, a reliability analysis framework based on resistance reduction is proposed. A three-dimensional finite element model of buried X80 steel pipe crossing a reverse fault is first established and calibrated against full-scale tests. Considering steel grade, pipe diameter, fault dip angle, diameter-to-thickness ratio and earthquake magnitude in parameterized cases, 1553 effective finite element samples are generated. Maximum hoop stress, equivalent plastic strain, logarithmic strain and displacement are taken as response quantities to construct an SSA-BP surrogate model embeddable in Monte Carlo simulation. The resistance reduction factor RF is introduced into the resistance term of the limit state function; failure is judged by the safety margin between reduced material resistance and surrogate-predicted stress, with explicit propagation of surrogate model residuals. Results show that increasing D/t and decreasing RF significantly raise the failure probability. When RF=1.0, increasing D/t from 36 to 66 raises the failure probability from about 71.9% to about 92.4%; when D/t=66 and RF=0.8, the failure probability approaches 100%. Hoop stress exceedance is suitable as the primary reliability criterion in the parameter space studied, while PEEQ and LE can serve as supplementary indicators for local plasticity and buckling deformation.

     

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