质能网下氢能输送路径经济评估与发展建议

Economic evaluation and development suggestions for hydrogen energy transportation pathways under the substance-energy network

  • 摘要: 【目的】在新型能源体系加速建设、绿电消纳瓶颈日益凸显的背景下,绿色氢基能源成为解决系列问题的重要抓手。不同氢基能源形态的输送特性存在显著差异,对管网系统的技术标准、运行参数及安全要求各不相同,输送路径的经济性优选难题尚未系统厘清,亟需开展针对性研究。【方法】基于新型能源质能网理论框架,从氢基能源输送路径全生命周期视角,构建涵盖资源侧转换、跨区域输送、需求侧转换全环节的综合运输成本模型。以新疆(资源侧)至长三角(需求侧)为基准场景,系统测算终端用氢、用甲烷、用甲醇、用合成氨四类典型场景需求下,18种不同氢基能源输送路径的成本水平,开展关键参数敏感性分析,并对各环节成本构成进行量化分解。【结果】研究表明,终端用氢情景下,直接输氢路径经济性最优(2.06–2.93元/kg),显著优于各类储氢载体路径。终端用甲醇、合成氨及甲烷情景下,在资源侧完成能源形态转换后直接输送对应介质的综合成本最低;既有油气管道的利旧改造可有效降低跨区域输送成本,并提升整个输送系统抵御成本波动的抗风险能力。【结论】基于上述研究结果,建议加强氢能输送战略通道规划,以科技创新推进储运与转换环节技术升级,强化产业链上中下游协同布局,深化“制输转用”全链条场景开发,为新型能源质能网下氢能输送体系规划提供决策参考。

     

    Abstract: Against the background of accelerated construction of the new energy system and increasingly prominent bottlenecks in renewable power consumption, green hydrogen-based energy has become an important approach to solving a series of problems. Different forms of hydrogen-based energy feature distinct transportation characteristics, leading to different technical standards, operating parameters and safety requirements for pipeline network systems. The problem of economically optimizing transportation pathways has not been systematically clarified, calling for targeted research urgently.Based on the theoretical framework of the new energy material-energy network, this study constructs a comprehensive transportation cost model covering resource-side conversion, cross-regional transportation and demand-side conversion from the full life cycle perspective of hydrogen-based energy transportation pathways. Taking Xinjiang (resource side) to the Yangtze River Delta (demand side) as the benchmark scenario, the cost levels of 18 different hydrogen-based energy transportation pathways are systematically calculated under four typical terminal demand scenarios: hydrogen, methane, methanol and ammonia. Sensitivity analysis of key parameters is conducted, and the cost composition of each link is quantitatively decomposed. The results show that for terminal hydrogen demand, direct hydrogen transportation pathways are the most economical (2.06–2.93 yuan/kg), significantly outperforming pathways using various hydrogen carriers. For terminal methanol, ammonia and methane demand, the comprehensive cost is minimized by converting energy forms at the resource side and directly transporting corresponding media. Retrofit and reuse of existing oil and gas pipelines can effectively reduce cross-regional transportation costs and improve the system’s ability to resist cost fluctuations. Accordingly, it is suggested to strengthen the planning of strategic hydrogen energy transportation corridors, promote technological upgrading of storage, transportation and conversion links through scientific and technological innovation, enhance the coordinated layout of the industrial chain, and deepen the whole-chain scenario development of “production-transportation-conversion-utilization”, so as to provide decision-making support for the planning of hydrogen energy transportation systems under the new energy material-energy network.

     

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