基于历史经验与深度强化学习的天然气管网故障处置调控站场优选方法

Optimal Selection of Control Stations for Natural Gas Pipeline Network Fault Handling Based on Historical Experience and Deep Reinforcement Learning

  • 摘要: 针对天然气管网故障处置中调控站场快速优选这一关键序贯决策问题,传统依赖人工经验的调度模式存在响应延迟、决策主观性强和历史数据利用不充分等瓶颈。本文提出一种融合领域专家知识与深度强化学习的智能决策方法。首先,设计了历史调度经验的结构化处理流程,通过动作语义解析、状态向量构建和奖励值计算,将非结构化的故障处置案例转化为可供强化学习训练的标准化数据集,实现专家隐性知识的显性化。其次,将调控站场优选问题形式化为马尔可夫决策过程,构建了包含故障类型、发生位置和已选站场信息的状态空间,定义了离散化的站场选择动作空间,并设计了基于专家方案一致性的三阶段奖励函数,引导模型学习高质量决策策略。再次,采用双深度Q网络(Double-DQN)算法求解该决策问题,通过解耦动作选择与价值评估,有效克服标准DQN的Q值过高估计问题,显著提升决策的稳定性和可靠性。最后,基于真实管网2020-2024年的1,847条故障处置记录开展实验验证。结果表明,该方法在测试集上达到94.8%的精确率、95.2%的召回率和82.3%的完全匹配率,平均推理时间仅12.5ms,相比标准DQN、随机森林和基于规则的方法,在决策质量和响应效率上均表现最优。该方法实现了数据驱动与知识驱动的有机结合,为天然气管网故障应急处置提供了快速、可靠的智能决策支持,对提升管网运行安全性和智能化水平具有重要理论意义和实践价值。

     

    Abstract: To address the bottlenecks of low efficiency, excessive reliance on manual experience, and insufficient utilization of historical data in natural gas pipeline network fault handling, this paper proposes an auxiliary decision-making method for the optimal selection of control stations, integrating historical experience with deep reinforcement learning. First, a framework for collecting and preprocessing historical fault handling data is constructed to systematically transform unstructured dispatching records, such as operation logs, into structured datasets suitable for machine learning, achieving an initial quantification of experts' tacit knowledge. Second, the problem of selecting an optimal combination of control stations under fault scenarios is modeled as a Markov Decision Process (MDP). We meticulously define a state space incorporating fault information and network topological features, a discrete action space based on adjustments of key stations, and a phased reward function that quantifies the consistency between the agent's decisions and historical expert solutions. Third, a Double Deep Q-Network (Double-DQN) algorithm is employed to train the decision-making agent. Through an experience replay mechanism and the separation of the target network, the agent efficiently learns the strategy for selecting optimal station combinations under various fault conditions, guided by expert experience. Finally, the trained model is deployed in real-time fault handling scenarios to provide dispatchers with data-driven recommendations for optimal station selection. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method achieves a precision of 94.8% and a recall of 95.2% on the test set, indicating a high degree of correspondence between the model's recommendations and historical expert decisions. The proposed method effectively realizes the explicitation and modeling of dispatchers' tacit knowledge, showing great potential to significantly improve fault response speed and decision quality, and provides a new technical approach for the intelligent dispatching of natural gas pipeline networks.

     

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