在役成品油管道改输气相CO2经济性评估与优化

Optimization of the Economic Assessment for Repurposing an In-Service Petroleum Pipeline to Transport Gaseous CO2

  • 摘要: 目的利用在役成品油管道改输气相CO2是大规模、高效输送CO2的重要途径,但其经济性受到改输工艺、碳补贴机制等多因素影响,目前尚无可靠的经济性评估与工艺运行优化方法。旨在建立考虑管道与站场改造、碳补贴及相态约束的改输气相CO2经济性评估与优化方法,为改输管道工艺设计与经济性评价提供指导。方法根据净现值法,将管道输量、首站出站压力、温度作为优化变量,考虑管道改造费用、站场改造费用、运行维护及能耗费用、CO2管输收益,建立在役成品油管道改输气相CO2经济性评估与优化模型;使用自适应遗传算法对模型进行优化求解。以东部地区某成品油管道为例,优化了改输工艺运行参数,探究了管道输量、改输后管道服役年限、补贴机制对年净现金流的影响。结果对于案例管道,在管输费0.5元/(吨·km)、封存补贴为65元/吨时,最优管道输量为1383吨/天,首站出站压力为5MPa、温度为292K,每年可获得三百万元的收益。各因素对CO2改输项目经济性的影响程度由大到小分别为管道输量、碳补贴机制、改输后管道服役年限。在30~2500吨/天范围内,年净现金流随管道输量增加呈先升后降趋势。在固定补贴机制下,当补贴低于57元/吨时管道、站场改造费用,运行能耗及维护费用之和大于管输收益;封存补贴单价从60元/吨提升至80元/吨时,盈利年限从11年降至4年。浮动补贴机制下,若初始补贴为54元/吨、52元/吨和50元/吨,碳封存补贴年增长率分别为1%、1.5%和2%时,改输CO2可以保持盈亏平衡。改输后管道服役年限从10增加到25年可使得年均盈利增长69.7%。结论对本成品油管道而言,封存补贴在57~80元/吨范围内时,改输后最优输量为1127~1581吨/天,首站出站压力为4~5MPa、温度在295K左右;建议固定补贴不少于57元/吨,浮动补贴最低不少于47元/吨。上述成果为成品油改输CO2管道与站场改造、工艺设计及碳补贴政策制定提供了重要参考。

     

    Abstract: Repurposing in-service petroleum product pipelines for gaseous CO2 transport is an important approach for large-scale and efficient CO2 delivery, yet its economic feasibility is influenced by multiple factors such as repurposing techniques and carbon subsidy mechanisms, with currently no reliable method for economic evaluation and operational optimization. This study aims to develop an economic assessment and optimization methodology for gaseous CO2 repurposing that considers pipeline and station modifications, carbon subsidies, and phase-state constraints, providing guidance for process design and economic evaluation. Based on the net present value method, an economic assessment and optimization model was established for repurposing in-service petroleum product pipelines to transport gaseous CO2, with pipeline throughput, discharge pressure and temperature at the initial station as optimization variables, while incorporating pipeline modification costs, station retrofit costs, operation maintenance and energy consumption expenses, and CO2 transportation revenue. The model was solved using an adaptive genetic algorithm. A case study of a petroleum products pipeline in eastern China optimized the repurposing process parameters and investigated the impact of pipeline throughput, service life after repurposing, and subsidy mechanisms on annual net cash flow. For the case pipeline, with a transportation fee of 0.5 CNY/(t·km) and a sequestration subsidy of 65 CNY/t, the optimal pipeline throughput was 1383 t/d, with a discharge pressure of 5 MPa and a temperature of 292 K at the initial station, achieving an annual profit of three million yuan. The factors affecting the economics of the CO2 repurposing project, in descending order of influence, are pipeline throughput, carbon subsidy mechanism, and service life after repurposing. Within the range of 30-2500 t/d, annual net cash flow initially increases and then decreases with rising throughput. Under a fixed subsidy mechanism, when the subsidy is below 57 CNY/t, the combined costs of pipeline and station modifications, operational energy consumption, and maintenance exceed the transportation revenue; as the sequestration subsidy increases from 60 to 80 CNY/t, the payback period shortens from 11 to 4 years. Under a floating subsidy mechanism, break-even can be maintained with initial subsidies of 54, 52, and 50 CNY/t and annual growth rates of 1%, 1.5%, and 2%, respectively. Extending the service life after repurposing from 10 to 25 years increases the average annual profit by 69.7%. For the studied petroleum pipeline, with sequestration subsidies ranging from 57 to 80 CNY/t, the optimal throughput after repurposing ranges from 1127 to 1581 t/d, with a discharge pressure of 4-5 MPa and a temperature around 295 K at the initial station. It is recommended that the fixed subsidy be no less than 57 CNY/t and the floating subsidy be no less than 47 CNY/t. These findings provide important references for pipeline and station modifications, process design, and carbon subsidy policy formulation for repurposing petroleum product pipelines for CO2 transport.

     

/

返回文章
返回