基于RF-IGOA-ITransformer的埋地油气管道腐蚀速率预测

Corrosion Rate Prediction of Buried Oil and Gas Pipelines Based on RF-IGOA-ITransformer

  • 摘要: 【目的】为解决现有模型难以动态评估埋地油气管道复杂腐蚀情况的问题,提出一种高精度腐蚀速率预测方法。【方法】基于随机森林(RF)、改进山羊优化算法(IGOA)和改进Transformer(ITransformer),通过RF筛选腐蚀影响因素中的关键变量,利用IGOA优化模型参数及分段建模策略,建立分段机制驱动的ITransformer模型对腐蚀速率缓变段与突变段分别建模预测。【结果】以100组埋地管道腐蚀试验数据为例,RF-IGOA-ITransformer模型的平均绝对误差(MAE)、均方误差(MSE)、均方根误差(RMSE)、平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)分别为0.8021、1.0146、1.0073和21.28%,决定系数(R²)为0.8569。与传统Transformer模型相比,MAE降低50.38%,MSE降低84.65%,RMSE降低60.82%,MAPE降低35.47%,R²提升789.2%。【结论】RF-IGOA-ITransformer模型显著提升了腐蚀速率预测精度和鲁棒性,为埋地油气管道腐蚀速率动态预测提供了高效解决方案。

     

    Abstract: Objective To address the difficulty of dynamically assessing the complex corrosion conditions of buried oil and gas pipelines using existing models, this study proposes a high-accuracy corrosion rate prediction method. Methods A model based on Random Forest (RF), Improved Goat Optimization Algorithm (IGOA), and Improved Transformer (ITransformer) is established. The RF is used to select key variables affecting corrosion, while IGOA optimizes model parameters and the segmentation modeling strategy. The ITransformer model, driven by a segmentation mechanism, is applied to separately predict the corrosion rates of gradual and abrupt segments. Results Using 100 sets of buried pipeline corrosion experimental data as an example, the average absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the RF-IGOA-ITransformer model were 0.8021, 1.0146, 1.0073, and 21.28%, respectively. The coefficient of determination (R²) was 0.8569. Compared to the traditional Transformer model, MAE decreased by 50.38%, MSE by 84.65%, RMSE by 60.82%, MAPE by 35.47%, and R² increased by 789.2%. Conclusion The RF-IGOA-ITransformer model significantly improves the prediction accuracy and robustness of corrosion rates, providing an efficient solution for the dynamic prediction of corrosion rates in buried oil and gas pipelines.

     

/

返回文章
返回