天然气管网新增下载点项目经济输量界限计算方法

Calculation of economic output limits for new offload points in natural gas pipeline network projects

  • 摘要:
    目的 国家石油天然气管网集团有限公司(简称国家管网集团)通过对在役天然气长输管道站场(阀室)的已建分输支路进行改建,新增天然气资源下载点,以此提高天然气分输量,最终实现增加营业收入、提升企业效益的目标。当前,下游用户对天然气下载点的开口需求大幅增长,同时基本建设项目对投资回报的要求也不断提高,在此背景下,开展新增下载点项目经济输量界限研究具有重要必要性。
    方法 根据国家发改委 “准许成本加合理收益” 的管输运价率定价机制,以及建设项目经济评价方法与参数相关规定,运用技术经济学基本原理,构建了新增下载点项目总投资、总成本与增量营业收入之间的关联关系,进而推导出计算经济输量界限的数学模型。为验证模型实用性,选取中东部价区某典型下载点项目作为案例:参照国家管网集团新增下载点项目的技术要求,并结合该下载点所在价区的实际运营情况,对数学模型中涉及的各项参数进行赋值,最终通过计算得出该案例项目的经济输量界限。
    结果 在新增下载点项目的可行性研究阶段,通过对比经济输量界限与用户申请的开口输量,可快速判断该投资项目的经济可行性:若经济输量界限小于用户申请开口输量,从财务角度来看项目具备可行性;若经济输量界限大于用户申请开口输量,则项目在经济上不可行。当项目经济评价结论为不可行时,可通过适当核减建设投资、合理压缩经营成本、优化天然气转运路径等改进措施,保障投资项目获得合理收益。
    结论 国家管网集团下游用户申请新增下载点的项目数量日益增多,快速判断项目经济可行性,不仅能进一步发挥管网公平开放的撬动作用,推动油气市场体系实现从 “3+X” 到 “X+1+X” 的历史性变革;同时,经济输量界限模型的建立,也为国家管网集团新增下载点项目的投资决策提供了重要参考,对增加管输收入、提高企业经济效益具有显著意义。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective China Oil and Gas Pipeline Network Corporation (PipeChina) boosts its revenue and enhances corporate performance by increasing natural gas offtake volumes. To accomplish this, existing offtake branches at in-service long-distance natural gas pipeline stations (valve chambers) are reconstructed to create new natural gas offload points. Given the surging demand for pipeline access from downstream users and the high expectations for returns on investments in PipeChina’s capital construction projects, studying the economic output limits for these new offload points has become essential.
    Methods According to the pricing mechanism and parameters of “allowable cost plus reasonable income” for pipeline transportation rates established by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), along with relevant provisions for the economic evaluation approach to PipeChina’s construction projects, a relational expression was established by leveraging the basic principles of technological economics. This expression incorporates total investment, total costs, and total income related to the construction of new offload points when the total profit equals zero. This relational expression was then used to develop a mathematical model for calculating economic output limits. In the calculation case based on a typical offload point in the central and eastern pricing zone, various parameters within the mathematical model were assigned specific values, taking into account relevant technical provisions regarding new offload points for PipeChina’s construction projects, as well as the actual conditions of the pricing zone where the offload point is located, and the economic output limit was ultimately yielded.
    Results Comparing the calculated economic output limits with the outputs requested by offload point users provides a quick solution for determining the economic feasibility of investment projects for new offload points during the feasibility study stage. Specifically, an economic output limit less than the output requested by the offload point user indicates that the project is financially feasible. Conversely, if the output limit exceeds the user’s request, the project is considered infeasible. If the economic evaluation concludes that the project is infeasible, measures to ensure reasonable returns for the investment may include appropriately reducing the construction investment, cutting operating costs, optimizing the natural gas transportation route, and implementing additional improvement suggestions.
    Conclusion Given the increasing number of requests from downstream users for offload points to PipeChina, rapidly evaluating the economic feasibility of these projects can enhance the leverage of fairness and openness within the pipeline network. This, in turn, promotes the transformation of the oil and gas market system from “3+X” to “X+1+X.” The establishment of the economic output limit model provides an important reference for PipeChina’s investment decision-making regarding the construction of new offload points, significantly increasing the company’s revenue and enhancing its economic performance.

     

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