新形势下天然气产供储销体系建设与运行探析

Analysis on the construction and operation of natural gas production, supply, storage, and sales system under new circumstances

  • 摘要:
    目的 天然气作为支撑国民经济与社会发展的重要清洁化石能源,肩负着国家能源安全、能源转型的重任。自“四个革命、一个合作”国家能源安全新战略提出以来,中国天然气行业取得长足发展,但产业链、供应链的不平衡、不充分问题依旧突出,天然气产供储销体系仍不完备。
    方法 在“十五·五”规划科学制定的重要时期,面对复杂多变的内、外部环境,着眼于解决天然气行业高质量发展面临的诸多“不确定性”难题,采用系统集成、协同高效的思路,运用复杂系统理论与综合集成法从战略、质量、改革、民生、科技5个维度,深入研究政府与市场、需求与供给、国内与国外、整体与局部、宏观与微观、常态与非常态、主观与客观、培育新动能与更新旧动能、做优增量与盘活存量、提升质量与做大总量、顶层设计与因地制宜、经济发展与社会责任等诸多关系,从天然气产业链上游、中游、下游查摆不足,大力剖析问题根源,全面探讨天然气产供销储体系建设与运行中存在的重要问题。
    结果 从天然气保障供应、能源结构态势、管网运营机制改革、产业发展探边找界、现代市场营销体系建设5个方面,对新形势下天然气产供储销体系的发展提出了建议:天然气保障供应能力应当统筹协调与竞合共赢,能源消费结构态势预测应考虑各种不确定性因素的干扰,管网运营机制改革应合理分配供应链相关方的利益,在天然气供应链的建设上应着重促进供需双侧的协调发展,并对天然气销售业务的市场营销体系进行全面创新。
    结论 天然气产供储销体系是一个开放的复杂大系统,不确定性因素众多,在“十五·五”期间应持续提升天然气产业链、供应链的韧性与安全水平,以适应国家对天然气行业高质量发展的新要求。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective Natural gas plays a crucial role as a clean fossil fuel in supporting national economic and social development, significantly contributing to national energy security and energy transition. Since the introduction of the national energy security strategy “Four Revolutions, One Cooperation”, China’s natural gas industry has advanced considerably. However, imbalances and inadequacies in the industry and supply chains remain evident, and the natural gas production, supply, storage, and sales system is not yet fully developed.
    Methods During the critical phase of formulating the “15th Five-Year Plan”, amid a complex and evolving internal and external environment, a systematically integrated, collaborative, and efficient approach was adopted to address the uncertainties hindering the high-quality development of the natural gas industry. In-depth research was conducted on key relationships—such as those between government and market, supply and demand, domestic and international factors, macro and micro perspectives, normal and abnormal conditions, subjective and objective aspects, fostering new growth drivers and upgrading old ones, optimizing new growth and revitalizing existing resources, enhancing quality and increasing total volume, top-level design and adapting measures to local conditions, and economic development and social responsibilities—across five dimensions: strategy, quality, reform, people’s livelihood, and technology. This process identified shortcomings throughout the natural gas industry chain, rigorously analyzed root causes, and comprehensively addressed major issues in the construction and operation of the production, supply, storage, and sales system.
    Results Recommendations for the development of the natural gas production, supply, storage, and sales system under new circumstances were proposed from five key aspects: ensuring natural gas supply, analyzing energy structure trends, reforming the pipeline network operation mechanism, exploring industrial development boundaries, and building a modern marketing system. It is essential to establish a coordinated and competitive supply guarantee capacity for mutually beneficial outcomes. Energy consumption forecasts should account for various uncertainties. In reforming the pipeline operation mechanism, interests along the supply chain should be equitably distributed. The construction of the natural gas supply chain should prioritize coordinated development between supply and demand while innovating the marketing system for gas sales.
    Conclusion The natural gas production, supply, storage, and sales system is a complex, open system with a great number of uncertainties. During the “15th Five-Year Plan”, the resilience and security of the natural gas industry chain and supply chain should be continuously enhanced to meet the country’s evolving high-quality development goals for the natural gas industry.

     

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