灰色预测改进模型在结蜡规律预测中的应用

Application of Grey Improved Forecast Model in Forecast of wax Deposition Law

  • 摘要: 通过分析灰色GM(1, 1)模型的建模原理,对初始序列进行对数变换,以改善其光滑性;利用欧拉改进法构建了改进的灰色GM(1, 1)预测模型,提高了拟合方程与待拟合系统微分方程之间的近似程度。应用改进模型对输油管道结蜡速度和结蜡厚度指标的实际统计数据进行了灰色动态拟合,建立了相应的灰色微分方程和时间响应函数。与传统模型相比,改进模型有预测精度高、灵活性大的特点。

     

    Abstract: Initiation sequence is logarithmically transformed to improve its smoothness through analyzing the establishing principle of grey GM(1, 1) model; the degree of approximity between fitted equation and differential equation of unfitted system is improved by adopting grey improved GM(1, 1) forecast model constituted from improved Euler method. Grey dynamic fitting on actual statistic data in wax deposition velocity and thickness from some oil pipeline is made by utilizing the improved model and relative grey differential equation and time response function are set up. Compared with conventional models, the improved model is characterized by high forecast precision and stronger flexibility.

     

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